My predictions - terribly unscientific and relatively brief

The election is maddening, and I can't wait for it to be over. I'm going to post up my prediction that got me to 269-269... son of a bitch! And then also my Senate count.

Swing States (as stated by RCP):

• Virginia - McCain +2
• North Carolina - McCain +4
• Florida - McCain +2
• Missouri - McCain +1
• Indiana - McCain +1
• Georgia - McCain +5
• Montana - McCain +7
• Arizona - McCain +4
• Ohio - McCain +1
• Colorado - McCain +1
• Nevada - Obama +4
• Pennsylvania - Obama +5
• New Mexico - Obama +7
• South Dakota - McCain +8
• West Virginia - McCain +8
• Aransas - McCain +9

So that makes it a tie. Fucking A. Although I have PA for Obama, it might swing if Mac is having a good day - maybe my other predictions suggest it, just naturally, by demographics. But I have no idea. I think Nevada is still possible as well, but I feel the rest are definitely going blue. Here's to hoping the bankrupting coal comments by Barry mean something to Ohio, PA and others.

Senate

• AK - D Beigich over Stevens (idiots up there nominating that guy while he's facing charges - good call morons)
• GA - R Chambliss holds
• CO - D Udall
• KY - R McConnell holds
• LA - D Landrieu holds
• MN - R Coleman holds (they may be silly enough to vote for a wrestler for governor, but no way people walk into that both and pull the lever for Stuart Smiley)
• NH - D Shaheen takes out Sunnunu (sorry pal, you're not your dad. Get your shit together, come back for the next one)
• NC - R Dole holds (despite her inept, defeatist campaigning and seeming inability to function, people in NC will play it safe)
• OR - D Merkeley by a hair over Smith
• CT - Lieberman will grow a pair and caucus with the Republicans

If I missed any let me know and I will update. I have no idea what it adds up to but I think under 60 for Dems. I'm too stressed to do math (hence, I attend law school).

Overall, I would be happy with a McCain win and less than 60 in the Senate, but no matter what, the right is going to need to take control of the Republican Party again, or jump ship for another. The worst part is (and Matt Beato agrees with this, so don't let him tell you otherwise) that if McCain loses, the biggest conservative victory of the year is Nichol's ouster. I brainstormed the other day and asked around and sadly, we can't find much of anything else besides that and a handful of other campus triumphs. Clearly, that means they shoudl put me in charge of this thing.

Am I losing my mind? Only slightly more than the usual pace. With my Adult ADD in full swing today, I shoudl be back to check for more posts from Jenn - and maybe I will actually take 10 minutes and read one of them and respond (sorry!)

The election is over

Sorry Joe, but the election is over. Theoretically, the economy is a strong predictor of who wins -- if it's doing well the incumbent party does well. If it blows, like this one that just plummeted another 700 points (so net loss of roughly 2200 points in a few weeks), then the out party does well. Additionally, given the low approval of Dubya, most likely the policy mood in America is leaning liberal because of dissatisfaction with the current conservative reign. For further proof, this is just the error correction mechanism in response to the 2002 elections (Erikson et al 2002). And how do you make manifest that liberal mood? Voting Democrat in this two-party system we're resigned to by Duverge's Law.*

So in a typical cycle, the economy would dominate as the most salient issue. There'd be some random secondary issue that would help split the vote a bit better, but right now it's not. The economy is, as always, the most salient issue and right now the ONLY salient issue for the mass public. Because of the stupidity of the American voter, they believe that the President is responsible for the economy's status. I don't care who you say really is, the public doesn't get it. They think the President is in charge and they vote along party-lines based on that. And that's why Obama will win. There is so much data on this that you can't deny it.

Plus, we can also go into momentum theory. Look at the fact that NORTH DAKOTA is now not a solid red state. This is going to be a landslide unless Osama bin Laden comes out within the next 72 hours with his head on a stick. It's all about bandwagonning and cascades. Forget about the Bradley Effect, the margin is entirely too large if it's really at 14.

Sigh, if only people listened to political scientists... Or if only I had wagered money on Intrade in February.

By the way, I LOVE that this election disproves the political-business cycle!

*For full disclosure, the economy and mood theories are the big ideas from one of my advisors, and I had to reread the book cited last night for my MA proposal draft. So this idea has been dominating my thinking for the past 24 hours. Hopefully I didn't fuck up Macropolitics too much in this cursory description of it.