My predictions - terribly unscientific and relatively brief

The election is maddening, and I can't wait for it to be over. I'm going to post up my prediction that got me to 269-269... son of a bitch! And then also my Senate count.

Swing States (as stated by RCP):

• Virginia - McCain +2
• North Carolina - McCain +4
• Florida - McCain +2
• Missouri - McCain +1
• Indiana - McCain +1
• Georgia - McCain +5
• Montana - McCain +7
• Arizona - McCain +4
• Ohio - McCain +1
• Colorado - McCain +1
• Nevada - Obama +4
• Pennsylvania - Obama +5
• New Mexico - Obama +7
• South Dakota - McCain +8
• West Virginia - McCain +8
• Aransas - McCain +9

So that makes it a tie. Fucking A. Although I have PA for Obama, it might swing if Mac is having a good day - maybe my other predictions suggest it, just naturally, by demographics. But I have no idea. I think Nevada is still possible as well, but I feel the rest are definitely going blue. Here's to hoping the bankrupting coal comments by Barry mean something to Ohio, PA and others.

Senate

• AK - D Beigich over Stevens (idiots up there nominating that guy while he's facing charges - good call morons)
• GA - R Chambliss holds
• CO - D Udall
• KY - R McConnell holds
• LA - D Landrieu holds
• MN - R Coleman holds (they may be silly enough to vote for a wrestler for governor, but no way people walk into that both and pull the lever for Stuart Smiley)
• NH - D Shaheen takes out Sunnunu (sorry pal, you're not your dad. Get your shit together, come back for the next one)
• NC - R Dole holds (despite her inept, defeatist campaigning and seeming inability to function, people in NC will play it safe)
• OR - D Merkeley by a hair over Smith
• CT - Lieberman will grow a pair and caucus with the Republicans

If I missed any let me know and I will update. I have no idea what it adds up to but I think under 60 for Dems. I'm too stressed to do math (hence, I attend law school).

Overall, I would be happy with a McCain win and less than 60 in the Senate, but no matter what, the right is going to need to take control of the Republican Party again, or jump ship for another. The worst part is (and Matt Beato agrees with this, so don't let him tell you otherwise) that if McCain loses, the biggest conservative victory of the year is Nichol's ouster. I brainstormed the other day and asked around and sadly, we can't find much of anything else besides that and a handful of other campus triumphs. Clearly, that means they shoudl put me in charge of this thing.

Am I losing my mind? Only slightly more than the usual pace. With my Adult ADD in full swing today, I shoudl be back to check for more posts from Jenn - and maybe I will actually take 10 minutes and read one of them and respond (sorry!)

Polling, exit polls, turnouts etc

I think its all a bunch of bull. How can one poll give Barry 11 points and another give McCain 1? With margin of error, that could be a swing of 16-18 points. That's nonsensical.

The cynic/hater of the leftist media in me wants to say that CBS News and NY Times are so shameless that they would outright lie about their numbers in order to pump up Obama, which could mean that outlier is bull and the range of Barry +3-7 is accurate.

But once again, on the other hand, Gallup's traditional and expanded are both showing Barry +10 which makes ZERO sense. Either youth and minorities are matching up with the mainstream or none of these pollsters have a clue.

Which begs the question: Jenn-- do you think maybe you got into the wrong field?

See Drudge

in Re: last post. And I just don't mean the story on the assault, I mean the last few weeks of stories. No kidding civility is better. But let's be honest: a few nuts yell at McCain's rally, and even the things they yell have been confirmed to be a lot tamer than originally reported. Barry, Mr. Post-Partisan, tells his people to "get in their face" if anyone dare speak against him.

Fear

It works-- Joe the Plumber in a bind, Obama hanging with Ayers and ACORN scares people and pushes those on the fence to either not vote or vote Mac.

Begala and Carville

MSNBC is bringing up the ACORN and Ayers thing.

It's irrelevant. To directly quote the man I wanted to be when I was 7 (seriously), James Carville*:

IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!

See my earlier post on why the election is over. Nothing changed tonight. There wasn't much of an opportunity for it to. If there'd been more of an economic focus it might have, but so far the dominate issue is still the economy and the frame and perception hasn't changed.

Though I find myself, on MSNBC, agreeing with Mike Murphy. Obama was more defensive. Joe the Plumber won. All of this avoided the economy and Walnuts failed.

*Seriously, since I was a tiny child I wanted to be a strategist, not President. Since roughly seven or eight years of age I have known who James Carville is.

Dear Obama

Stop agreeing with McCain.

Additionally, I may have liked you during primary season if you had specifics. Granted, your specifics still aren't wonky enough for me, but at least they now exist.

And so it begins...

I love Bob Schieffer. There is something about Texans, seeing as how I identify as one, that I love. I subscribe to the Face the Nation podcast and still make a point to switch over to his final comments (and lately, most of his show). There's something about Texans. Just look at the dominate figures in US government in the past half-century. Rayburn, LBJ, Speaker Wright, Tom "The Hammer" DeLay, and even Rove and Dubya. Texans dominate the political processes. We are badasses.

I do hope Schieffer acts like a good Texan tonight. And by that I mean brash, blunt, and brazen. I hope he calls both candidates out for not answering questions. I hope he asks real questions and not just segues for talking points. I hope he forces the two to interact with one another and address the real issues.

I hope he makes it interesting, for lack of a better expression. I'm hoping that this Texan doesn't disappoint me and manages to bring a more intellectual dimension to this.

And so it begins now... I'm on MSNBC.

More on Biden

You forgot the new revelations about botox that came out today.

I've also started to notice, at least on my end, that it's far more fun to talk about the VP selections. Is the same true for the Reps? The VPs are just better characters to analyze. Palin's just, well, Tina Fey really does put it best. And Biden asking the guy in the wheelchair to stand up just makes you want to say "Well shucks Joe, you're always gonna screw up something, arencha?" Unfortunately, we haven't been treated to as many gaffes from him as I'd like. Watching the two VP candidates I have come to understand the fascination some people have with NASCAR. I keep watching and hoping for the verbal equivalent of a car crash.

Then compare that dynamic to "my friends" McCain and the cool, calm and collected Obama. Where's the excitement with them? Unless McCain goes postal, which I do believe he is capable of (and then calling it a maverick move), the two Presidential nominess are just going to be wonky tomrrow night. B-O-R-I-N-G. It's like watching Roger Federer play damn near anyone at Wimbleon -- you pretty much already know what's going to happen, so why bother?

And that's why I drink to the debates. And may or may not have started channeling Dennis Miller, minus the conservatism.

As for that nickname, to give you an idea as to how old this Blogger account is, I was still on good terms with the person who gave me that nickname. I stopped using this account when I switched over to Wordpress a while back. I finally realized I still had that name up today and changed it. I'll tell you the story behind it later, but it involves my favorite AIM stalker.

Rules for the Debating of the Debate

I do have to say, excepting that one time I got drunk at a semi-classy restaurant, I have not seen Dean Gene around campus. And my horrible, horrible building is near the law school.

My guidelines are as follows:

• I will be doing this Hunter S. Thompson style. See the last time I did a debate in this fashion to find out more. I will be consuming far more this time, however. Joe, I encourage you to do the same. Because I'm so patriotic, I'm opting for a California Cabernet, not the Australian Shiraz I have lying around.
  
• To shorten up the typing, McCain is now Mac, though Obama is Obama. Or maybe The Big O. Haven't decided yet.
  
• Palin I will refer to as "That nutjob who thinks dinosaurs and men walked the earth together."
• Biden, well, he's too boring to reference. Seriously, where has the gaffe machine gone?
  

For the Record...

For the record-

• I didn't fire Gene; he quit like a baby when I helped to force the hands of those who could fire him to "not renew his contract"
• I will refer to Barak (Insert Middle Name that I won't get accused of racism for saying) Obama as "Barry"
• This is awesome