Some comments on Jenn's last one

OK, so I can't function at all today and just read her posts after saying I wasn't going to.. oy.

I think race is a factor as well, and I think that Jenn might be right about the undecideds. But I would also knock 3-5% off of Obama's numbers, depending on the state. But I don't think its a race thing as much as its just popular thing to go for the guy who is winning.

Also, the key to factor in is how much Obama looks establishment now and how, ironically, some people may actually see Mac as a Maverick. They see "underdog" and think "maverick." I could have pushed a few more swing states to Mac had his numbers been a bit stronger this week to really make an upset look like a closer chance. Americans love that story of a heroic comeback (see Bill Clinton circa 1992, all the Rocky movies, any sports movie, etc).

Finally, something tells me that Palin may be more of a factor. ENPR says that PA is only in play because of her and I think that's right. I think the numbers to watch here are her TV ratings. I don't think that many Americans are tuning in to her debate and appearance on SNL because they hate her. I don't consider her convention speech as a factor, as it was her intro... although pulling a Barry-like audience says something too.

But as we all know, Americans will vote for the people they want to see more of (see every reality TV show). Hence Barry's over-saturation could prove costly. If Palin has resonated at all, Mac can take it.

If they don't win, I want Newt Gingrich as RNC head until 2010, and Palin after that. (Newt if they win or lose)