Friday, October 24, 2008
If she's lying
If that girl in Pittsburgh is lying, I am going to be more mad at her than I am at Mac and Barry put together
See Drudge
in Re: last post. And I just don't mean the story on the assault, I mean the last few weeks of stories. No kidding civility is better. But let's be honest: a few nuts yell at McCain's rally, and even the things they yell have been confirmed to be a lot tamer than originally reported. Barry, Mr. Post-Partisan, tells his people to "get in their face" if anyone dare speak against him.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Civility
So for the past few days I've been absolutely appalled by what's going on in North Carolina. You may have read about it on Politico -- when an older woman from NC asked Obama about the North American Union. If you're in the state, you may have seen the story on News 14 Carolina about how visitors to an Obama rally had their tires slashed in the parking lot. This link summarizes most of what's happened in the state the past few days. (It is a liberal-leaning blog, but it beats me posting 6 different links.)
If you've read my Facebook news feed for the past few days, you've come to realize just how shocked and disgusted I am by this behavior. It's juvenile and coming from adults. Maybe it's just from having family concentrated in Orange County and touristy-Carteret County (both of which have Dem Congressmen I think), but I can't believe North Carolina has failed to move beyond the old South race relations. I mean, for crying out loud, I didn't learn about the klan until I moved to Tennessee in 1993 -- it wasn't active in this state, but now it seems like it is.
I think both Joe and I can agree that this behavior is beyond the pale. I think we can both cite ourselves as examples of how you can be civil and disagree. We debate and discuss in words, and are mature enough to agree to disagree. I'm not going to go out and slash Joe's tires for liking McCain, and he's not going to leave a dead bear in my driveway and throw my Obama-Biden car magnet on top of it.
If you've read my Facebook news feed for the past few days, you've come to realize just how shocked and disgusted I am by this behavior. It's juvenile and coming from adults. Maybe it's just from having family concentrated in Orange County and touristy-Carteret County (both of which have Dem Congressmen I think), but I can't believe North Carolina has failed to move beyond the old South race relations. I mean, for crying out loud, I didn't learn about the klan until I moved to Tennessee in 1993 -- it wasn't active in this state, but now it seems like it is.
I think both Joe and I can agree that this behavior is beyond the pale. I think we can both cite ourselves as examples of how you can be civil and disagree. We debate and discuss in words, and are mature enough to agree to disagree. I'm not going to go out and slash Joe's tires for liking McCain, and he's not going to leave a dead bear in my driveway and throw my Obama-Biden car magnet on top of it.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Crying Inside
Joe Biden is a Joebetrayer
“I don’t have any Joe the Plumbers in my neighborhood that make $250,000 a year that are worried,” Biden said on NBC’s Today show. “The Joe the Plumbers in my neighborhood, the Joe the Cops in my neighborhood, the Joe the Grocery Store Owners in my neighborhood...”More serious responses later
More on Joe the Plumber
The way Joe the Plumber has been handled reminds me of how Palin was in the beginning.
You find some person that will appeal to a target demographic on the surface and neglect to find out anything else about them.
I'm not going to make that "it shows further poor judgment" argument. I don't think Walnuts had much say in the references to Joe the Plumber (not sure the level on the VP choice but I don't think Walnuts had the final say).
Instead, I think it shows how stretched Walnuts' staff is. He's got Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis doing more roles than they should. Just based on a mutual acquaintance of Joe and me's having left the campaign, I can't help but think that camp is bleeding good people and replacing them with questionable ones.
I agree with most stories saying the McCain campaign is being mismanaged. I can't tell if it's being micromanaged too much or if the subadvisors are just not good enough for a Pres run, but something's wrong with this campaign.
You find some person that will appeal to a target demographic on the surface and neglect to find out anything else about them.
I'm not going to make that "it shows further poor judgment" argument. I don't think Walnuts had much say in the references to Joe the Plumber (not sure the level on the VP choice but I don't think Walnuts had the final say).
Instead, I think it shows how stretched Walnuts' staff is. He's got Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis doing more roles than they should. Just based on a mutual acquaintance of Joe and me's having left the campaign, I can't help but think that camp is bleeding good people and replacing them with questionable ones.
I agree with most stories saying the McCain campaign is being mismanaged. I can't tell if it's being micromanaged too much or if the subadvisors are just not good enough for a Pres run, but something's wrong with this campaign.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Joe discrimination continues in the classroom
My Civ Pro professor just referred to the differences in who to pick for a jury in Teamsters v. Terry, a 1990 USSC case:
Joe the Plumber - as a business owner
Joe Six Pack - Regular guy
Ordinary Joe - Regular guy
Ordinary Jill got thrown in there too, but that was just trying to appease me.
She also just referred to the Great Depression as "The First Great Depression." And they say conservatives are fear mongers...
Joe the Plumber - as a business owner
Joe Six Pack - Regular guy
Ordinary Joe - Regular guy
Ordinary Jill got thrown in there too, but that was just trying to appease me.
She also just referred to the Great Depression as "The First Great Depression." And they say conservatives are fear mongers...
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Fear
It works-- Joe the Plumber in a bind, Obama hanging with Ayers and ACORN scares people and pushes those on the fence to either not vote or vote Mac.
Nielson ratings
With a baseball playoff game, the viewership is down -- probably near 50 million.
Assume bias towards over-reporting watching, so true viewership at 40 million.
Drop off because this was boring, around 25-30 million.
Assume bias towards over-reporting watching, so true viewership at 40 million.
Drop off because this was boring, around 25-30 million.
Begala and Carville
MSNBC is bringing up the ACORN and Ayers thing.
It's irrelevant. To directly quote the man I wanted to be when I was 7 (seriously), James Carville*:
IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!
See my earlier post on why the election is over. Nothing changed tonight. There wasn't much of an opportunity for it to. If there'd been more of an economic focus it might have, but so far the dominate issue is still the economy and the frame and perception hasn't changed.
Though I find myself, on MSNBC, agreeing with Mike Murphy. Obama was more defensive. Joe the Plumber won. All of this avoided the economy and Walnuts failed.
*Seriously, since I was a tiny child I wanted to be a strategist, not President. Since roughly seven or eight years of age I have known who James Carville is.
It's irrelevant. To directly quote the man I wanted to be when I was 7 (seriously), James Carville*:
IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!
See my earlier post on why the election is over. Nothing changed tonight. There wasn't much of an opportunity for it to. If there'd been more of an economic focus it might have, but so far the dominate issue is still the economy and the frame and perception hasn't changed.
Though I find myself, on MSNBC, agreeing with Mike Murphy. Obama was more defensive. Joe the Plumber won. All of this avoided the economy and Walnuts failed.
*Seriously, since I was a tiny child I wanted to be a strategist, not President. Since roughly seven or eight years of age I have known who James Carville is.
Perception
Andrea Mitchell, not my favorite MSNBC anchor (I'm biased towards the Morning Joe crowd, truth be told, especially my girl-crush Mika), but she raises a good points.
Facts don't matter -- perception does.
I was talking about this with one of my advisors the other day, who said the same thing. What the pundits say doesn't matter, what the facts are don't matter... in essence, the truth doesn't matter. All that matters is what the public thinks the truth is. I have no idea (nor do any pundits, but at least I admit my ignorance), how they come to these perceptions of the truth, but that's what matters.
At this point, maybe I was wrong when talking with my advisor and I can pass my comprehensive exams. Also, I'd change it to Fox News if I knew what channel it was on -- so far all I know is MSNBC (mostly for Morning Joe), Comedy Central, Vh1, BBC America, and Disney.
Facts don't matter -- perception does.
I was talking about this with one of my advisors the other day, who said the same thing. What the pundits say doesn't matter, what the facts are don't matter... in essence, the truth doesn't matter. All that matters is what the public thinks the truth is. I have no idea (nor do any pundits, but at least I admit my ignorance), how they come to these perceptions of the truth, but that's what matters.
At this point, maybe I was wrong when talking with my advisor and I can pass my comprehensive exams. Also, I'd change it to Fox News if I knew what channel it was on -- so far all I know is MSNBC (mostly for Morning Joe), Comedy Central, Vh1, BBC America, and Disney.
Fox people are missing the point
I always listen to the first round from FNC and then jump to MSNBC, then CNN...
They miss the point that Mac brought up the character issues big time-- its doubt.
Luntz group is showing it right now:
4 of the 23 changed to Obama, but the woman in the front was, as Rush would call it: a "seminar caller".
If Obama can't answer the questions on Ayers et al, he will NOT get their votes. That was clear
They miss the point that Mac brought up the character issues big time-- its doubt.
Luntz group is showing it right now:
4 of the 23 changed to Obama, but the woman in the front was, as Rush would call it: a "seminar caller".
If Obama can't answer the questions on Ayers et al, he will NOT get their votes. That was clear
Joe the Plumber -- more
Joe is right.
Screw Joe Six-Pack. It's all about the Plumber. He is our new meme.
Screw Joe Six-Pack. It's all about the Plumber. He is our new meme.
Comment, Readers!
So readers, are Joe and I an echo chamber for our own views, or did we help educate you on points and provide insightful commentary? Did we respond to one another as best we could (note, this format does not update as well as previously expected), and did we analyze the debate in ways the helped you?
I mostly ask for my own political science research purposes, so please comment on how you think we did!
I mostly ask for my own political science research purposes, so please comment on how you think we did!
Schieffer evaluation
On the whole I thought he did good. Didn't seem biased towards one side. Got his questions in that he wanted. Cut both off an equal number of times. Let them fight.
I <3 Texans.
Also, I love Michelle Obama' dress color.
I <3 Texans.
Also, I love Michelle Obama' dress color.
Response to Joe
So in response to your points, I have no clue how ND ties in, as I said in my lengthy post. The money thing is a point of contention -- research I've done actually does show expenditure matters. I'll get back to you once I finish cleaning this project up over winter break. As for the third, the TA's are wondering which would be worse -- Obama or Walnuts? For them it's a lesser of two evils question.
Teacher's Unions
Think they're listening to Barry now? If they actually cared about their big issue, (themselves!) they would be dropping the endorsement ASAP. Too bad its just leftist ideology they agree with.
Mac on Education
Shows a real understanding here. His point on overloading money to failing districts is clear in Abbott Districts in NJ
Fill me in...
How does military power of US relate to education? Is this another Kerry gaffe saying military men can't make it to College?
Barry also needs to know that out of the US budget, military expenditures is not that large at all
Barry also needs to know that out of the US budget, military expenditures is not that large at all
Education II
This is long, because I care
Obama: OK, tie it into econ, not national defense. You're weaker on ND, so just avoid it. Wow, good job picking up that compromise on public funding and privatization. And good tie on early childhood -- given that most peeps Joe and me's age are now popping out the young ones that helps. And also most of us are in college, and we really do worry about this. Also, interesting that he's adopted a fair amount of what sounds like Hillary's position. Not the service part, but the emphasis on research/grad education. And, as good a plan as making parents work is, you better be glad Schieffer cut you off before sounding uber-liberal.
Walnuts: Standard R party line -- just mention vouchers and he's set. OK, charter schools don't work. See numerous studies since 2006 onwards when the time-series became useful. And competition, well, most studies on that have flaws (since I read most studies on that last week), namely with how they measure things. AND TFA HAS PROBLEMS WITH WHO THEY PICK WALNUTS, DO NOT GET ME STARTED. Most of this, without saying it, mirrors NCLB. Walnuts plan will result in a MASSIVE expansion of federal government, so Joe and Joe's allies, be afraid.
Obama 2: Good compromise. People like states supporting education, and you got to bash on NCLB. And nice tie-in to special education -- didn't Palin cut money for that? OK, ugh to charters. Seriously, ugh. Obama is pulling a truly moderate position on this one. OK, attack Walnuts -- and GREAT line on "I don't think America's youth are interest groups, I think they're our future." Maybe that's just my bias towards studying OIs.
Walnuts 2: OK, DC schools still blow. And if you want a vouchers example, go with Milwaukee for cryin' out loud. Headstart as a great program Walnuts? If you're culling for political points, that ain't the program you call good. So is Walnuts raise taxes? UGH, PALIN. Hey, isn't Beato autistic or something, or do we just lie about that on Wikipedia? So Walnuts on vouchers -- I'll do it when asked?
Obama 3: Hells yes the DC school system blows. I do like how Obama just ignores Walnuts politely. It makes him seem far more rational and calm. Which is how he needs to look. And now Walnuts looks smug. Or on Zoloft.
Walnuts 3: I did not get that joke, or understand what he said.
Obama: OK, tie it into econ, not national defense. You're weaker on ND, so just avoid it. Wow, good job picking up that compromise on public funding and privatization. And good tie on early childhood -- given that most peeps Joe and me's age are now popping out the young ones that helps. And also most of us are in college, and we really do worry about this. Also, interesting that he's adopted a fair amount of what sounds like Hillary's position. Not the service part, but the emphasis on research/grad education. And, as good a plan as making parents work is, you better be glad Schieffer cut you off before sounding uber-liberal.
Walnuts: Standard R party line -- just mention vouchers and he's set. OK, charter schools don't work. See numerous studies since 2006 onwards when the time-series became useful. And competition, well, most studies on that have flaws (since I read most studies on that last week), namely with how they measure things. AND TFA HAS PROBLEMS WITH WHO THEY PICK WALNUTS, DO NOT GET ME STARTED. Most of this, without saying it, mirrors NCLB. Walnuts plan will result in a MASSIVE expansion of federal government, so Joe and Joe's allies, be afraid.
Obama 2: Good compromise. People like states supporting education, and you got to bash on NCLB. And nice tie-in to special education -- didn't Palin cut money for that? OK, ugh to charters. Seriously, ugh. Obama is pulling a truly moderate position on this one. OK, attack Walnuts -- and GREAT line on "I don't think America's youth are interest groups, I think they're our future." Maybe that's just my bias towards studying OIs.
Walnuts 2: OK, DC schools still blow. And if you want a vouchers example, go with Milwaukee for cryin' out loud. Headstart as a great program Walnuts? If you're culling for political points, that ain't the program you call good. So is Walnuts raise taxes? UGH, PALIN. Hey, isn't Beato autistic or something, or do we just lie about that on Wikipedia? So Walnuts on vouchers -- I'll do it when asked?
Obama 3: Hells yes the DC school system blows. I do like how Obama just ignores Walnuts politely. It makes him seem far more rational and calm. Which is how he needs to look. And now Walnuts looks smug. Or on Zoloft.
Walnuts 3: I did not get that joke, or understand what he said.
Eloquence
Yes Walnuts, talk about the eloquence of Obama. Nothing wrong in highly complimenting your opponent.
"Not that long ago"
Barry was in Illinois State Senate only a few years ago, but of course, he is steeped in experience right?
Framing issues
Smart move talking about Roe in terms that appeal to conservatives sense of small government. Hopefully that frame will catch on instead of the morally driven one that dominates now.
And good move bringing up Ledbetter. I don't care what kind of woman you are -- supporting Walnuts and Palin in light of that decision is just wrong. If Palin's right and there's a special place in hell for not supporting other women (assuming, as I don't, that there is a heaven and hell), then Palin, for you not being on board with Ledbetter, you can guess where I'll be seeing you.
And good move bringing up Ledbetter. I don't care what kind of woman you are -- supporting Walnuts and Palin in light of that decision is just wrong. If Palin's right and there's a special place in hell for not supporting other women (assuming, as I don't, that there is a heaven and hell), then Palin, for you not being on board with Ledbetter, you can guess where I'll be seeing you.
Be careful Mac!
Nice dance move at the end by Mac saying that someone that agrees with Roe isn't qualified. WOW. That's the trickiest he's been yet.
Federalism
Hey Mac, a federalist is one who BELIEVES IN STRONGER NATIONAL GOVERNMENT. NOT WHAT YOU JUST DEFINED.
That would be what Joe and I's illustrious alum -- Thomas Jefferson -- was. An ANTI-Federalist.
That would be what Joe and I's illustrious alum -- Thomas Jefferson -- was. An ANTI-Federalist.
Taxes
Obama's right. Anytime you tax anything the business passes the buck onto the consumers or employees (by cutting them). It's just how it works.
And now onto Roe. You know, Dubya said the same thing...
And now onto Roe. You know, Dubya said the same thing...
Liberal
Finally, Walnuts uses a dirty word/phrase -- big government.
Is it just me, or have I not heard "liberal" all that much, if at all, tonight. I don't care how pissed off the public is about Bush's failures, liberal still carries a highly negative connotation. Why isn't Walnuts using it?
AND CAN WE MOVE AWAY FROM JOE THE PLUMBER ONTO MARY THE BAKER?
Is it just me, or have I not heard "liberal" all that much, if at all, tonight. I don't care how pissed off the public is about Bush's failures, liberal still carries a highly negative connotation. Why isn't Walnuts using it?
AND CAN WE MOVE AWAY FROM JOE THE PLUMBER ONTO MARY THE BAKER?
Thank you Mac
Thanks for reading "Jenn and Joe debate" and recognizing Joe the Plumber's plight. His plan actually sounds legit tonight and points out that he wants people to decide for themselves, not the government.
Senator Government should have been said on purpose! That should be used in the next 3 weeks.
FINALLY! Democrats have been running Congress! Surprise!
Senator Government should have been said on purpose! That should be used in the next 3 weeks.
FINALLY! Democrats have been running Congress! Surprise!
Define small businesses
His numbers on that change, and also make no sense. Joe the Plumber would be FUCKED-- Mac has to stress that and Obama can't defend it.
No Joe
Drilling futures do matter, FOR THREE WEEKS. Then we're back to random walk pricing with a reversion to the real trend line. Study 'metrics, then it'll make sense.
Also, back to Joe the Plumber....
Also, back to Joe the Plumber....
Why drilling matters NOW and forever
Oil contracts are based on futures: if people know now there will be more oil later, they don't buy the contracts now. Average contract length is 5 years in advance. Even before the stock drop, barrel prices shot down thanks the Newt's "Drill Here Drill Now Pay Less" movement and the restriction on off-shore expiring without renewal.
Labor Leaders
I know a few things about Colombian labor leaders... as does Joe...
On the first link, search my last name.
On the first link, search my last name.
Columbia Free Trade
I don't necessarily agree with NAFTA, but the Columbia plan sounds pretty good the way Mac presents it.
Labor leaders attacked in Columbia... I think that was a Senate bill about Coca-Cola. Beato, please post it in the comments.
Barry will "enforce unfair trade agreements." WOOPS!
People not getting car loans is a lie. Try it yourself.
Barry is already putting conditions on his money giveaways to businesss-- tough shit GM!
Wind turbines don't do shit.
Labor leaders attacked in Columbia... I think that was a Senate bill about Coca-Cola. Beato, please post it in the comments.
Barry will "enforce unfair trade agreements." WOOPS!
People not getting car loans is a lie. Try it yourself.
Barry is already putting conditions on his money giveaways to businesss-- tough shit GM!
Wind turbines don't do shit.
Energy II
Solar, oil, wind... sounds like the Pickens plan.
Or what Mark Warner campaigned on during his Pres run, which was brilliant.
Now I only minored in economics, and mathematical economics at that, but it seems to me the best way to stimulate the economy is to go the R&D route and change the rules of the game. It shifts the aggregate curves and makes things better for us on the whole.
OK Mac, offshore drilling now will have no effect for 10 years. Might reduce prices for three weeks, but no more. It's not anything beyond a stunt. Ask anyone who minored in economics (or just suffered through Econ 101 with Haulman).
Or what Mark Warner campaigned on during his Pres run, which was brilliant.
Now I only minored in economics, and mathematical economics at that, but it seems to me the best way to stimulate the economy is to go the R&D route and change the rules of the game. It shifts the aggregate curves and makes things better for us on the whole.
OK Mac, offshore drilling now will have no effect for 10 years. Might reduce prices for three weeks, but no more. It's not anything beyond a stunt. Ask anyone who minored in economics (or just suffered through Econ 101 with Haulman).
Barry on Energy and Trade
Expand domestic production - too bad those acres can't be drilled on or are ineffective. Look at offshore drilling? Its allowed already.
I am pretty sure Barry has no clue how trade works. We're getting a lot of "uh" and "umms." The South Korean example saying that isn't free trade is just WRONG.
I am pretty sure Barry has no clue how trade works. We're getting a lot of "uh" and "umms." The South Korean example saying that isn't free trade is just WRONG.
FP
FYI, Lugar, a leading figure on foreign policy for R's, just endorsed Obama. Not a smart move by Walnuts to go after a dude on something members of your own party agree with. And Lugar's highly respected and been known for years, better than Biden, on these issues...
Even if his CoS went to Duke.
Even if his CoS went to Duke.
NUKES
Should have mentioned France has them to ensure the safety issue-- always works.
Barry is laughing again.
Barry is laughing again.
Energy
Well, I would normally expect these two to agree on this subject. Walnuts has done some decent work on environmental regulation. The question is, how far has he gone into, to quote Stewart, "crazy base world," and will change his answer to reflect that?
So far the oil things sound semi-similar...
So far the oil things sound semi-similar...
Both went positive only for their people
But Bob is egging them on...
Barry passes on the bait. Or not...
Indirect insult to Palin that she doesn't support things that she should. Its her fucking kid man, you can't touch that.
Biden is getting hit, but strictly on foreign policy, outright saying he's wrong.
Spending more = bad. Nice point. Needs to add that the "government spending" is TAX MONEY!
Barry passes on the bait. Or not...
Indirect insult to Palin that she doesn't support things that she should. Its her fucking kid man, you can't touch that.
Biden is getting hit, but strictly on foreign policy, outright saying he's wrong.
Spending more = bad. Nice point. Needs to add that the "government spending" is TAX MONEY!
When Mac still finds holes after the explanation, that means the story isn't complete
Barry laughing over McCain's answer is arrogant, and what Mac got knocked for last time.
From a friend:
Chris: obama really needs to stop inappropriately laughing
From a friend:
Chris: obama really needs to stop inappropriately laughing
its obnoxious
Giggling
OBAMA -- DO NOT GIGGLE. YOU SEEM LIKE AN ELITIST.
Though Walnuts, you do seem like a semi-senile old man who can only remember talking points and not think on his feet, a characteristic a president desperately needs.
I mean, both stick to the points, but at least Obama can adapt them to a new question.
Though Walnuts, you do seem like a semi-senile old man who can only remember talking points and not think on his feet, a characteristic a president desperately needs.
I mean, both stick to the points, but at least Obama can adapt them to a new question.
Explaining Ayers
"Radical domestic group" are terrorists.
Mac, you best hit him hard on his answer. I hope Barry mentions that Ayers has been "rehabilitated." If Mac was hanging with Timothy McVeigh, would that be OK?
ACORN answer ignores the donations of $800g+.
On mortgage policy Barry associates with Jim Johnson and Franklin Raines.
Mac, you best hit him hard on his answer. I hope Barry mentions that Ayers has been "rehabilitated." If Mac was hanging with Timothy McVeigh, would that be OK?
ACORN answer ignores the donations of $800g+.
On mortgage policy Barry associates with Jim Johnson and Franklin Raines.
Ads
Duh Joe, he's not going to mention the Ayers ad. One of my colleagues here, and a coauthor on a publication, studied how the impact of ads isn't measured on the airtime they get but the media coverage they get.
Smart move Obama. He reads political science scholars. And, as a PhD candidate, I like that because it makes me feel important.
Smart move Obama. He reads political science scholars. And, as a PhD candidate, I like that because it makes me feel important.
Reminding people of the terrorist tag?
Also, notice Obama will not call out McCain on his ads-- because that would give them more play. No mention of the Ayers ad
Hypocrites
Good job on calling Walnuts a hypocrite Obama. If you're gonna bitch about me having John Lewis say negative things, then you gotta get Palin and your supporters under control.
This is brinkmanship. Neither candidate will do anything on this issue, but bringing it up makes the other one look bad.
And the more I listen to Obama, the more I have come to like him. Yes, he's an intellectual. That means he's calm and collected and rational and -- guess what -- I like that.
This is brinkmanship. Neither candidate will do anything on this issue, but bringing it up makes the other one look bad.
And the more I listen to Obama, the more I have come to like him. Yes, he's an intellectual. That means he's calm and collected and rational and -- guess what -- I like that.
Linking him to 527s?
REALLY? REALLY?
That is outrageous - can't wait until we link him to the MoveOn General Betray-Us ads.
Barry bitches that we aren't discussing the issues but also says that town hall meetings weren't needed.
Obama refuses to repudiate-- Mac, CALL HIM ON IT!
That is outrageous - can't wait until we link him to the MoveOn General Betray-Us ads.
Barry bitches that we aren't discussing the issues but also says that town hall meetings weren't needed.
Obama refuses to repudiate-- Mac, CALL HIM ON IT!
Stem Cells
Walnuts, if you don't support stem cell funding, you're stupid. The numbers on that issue are near-valence and it is something that the public is behind. You can't pull to the base on that one. Let Palin -- if you want to win, you have to support killing babies to cure cancer.
Your 65 percent demographic figures consist of Reagan Dems who are already voting Republican and have been for years and independents who want to seem moderate and aren't. A lot of response to those questions is how you want to be perceived, but you only pay attention to what you want to hear.
And that negative campaign ad thing works. Wanna know why? Because McCain can't run positive ones. Not because he's evil, but because positive ads gin up support and enthusiasm for a candidate. R's don't have that for Walnuts, so he's got to run negative to help himself. If he ran positive it would have zilch of an effect on the electorate.
And that negative campaign ad thing works. Wanna know why? Because McCain can't run positive ones. Not because he's evil, but because positive ads gin up support and enthusiasm for a candidate. R's don't have that for Walnuts, so he's got to run negative to help himself. If he ran positive it would have zilch of an effect on the electorate.
McCain getting emotional
And calling Barry on the fact that he NEVER REPUDIATES SHIT.
Public financing points were good.
Of course Obama spent more on negative ads-- he has more! Haha! That was clever shit
Public financing points were good.
Of course Obama spent more on negative ads-- he has more! Haha! That was clever shit
G-Nic
Hey Joe, didn't Gene Nichol like John Lewis? And now McCain's called him an American hero? Using Colbert logic, doesn't that now make Nichol an American hero?
Note, I'm using Colbert logic...
Note, I'm using Colbert logic...
Fox News shot
Obama will lose points and confirm to the 65% of people who watch FNC that are Dems and Independents that he is frustrated by anyone that questions him.
Earmarks
THANK YOU OBAMA FOR BRINGING UP THE FUTILITY OF EARMARKS AS A MEANS OF CURING THE BUDGET PROCESS.
For frak's sake, even Bill Frist's old budget staffer acknowledges that. And that dude's responsible for making ketchup a vegetable.
Earmarks are roughly 30 percent of the budget. Entitlement reform is what we need, and what no one will do.
For frak's sake, even Bill Frist's old budget staffer acknowledges that. And that dude's responsible for making ketchup a vegetable.
Earmarks are roughly 30 percent of the budget. Entitlement reform is what we need, and what no one will do.
Anti-Joe
Joe, I agree, we need to take the name Joe out of the discourse.
Maybe add in a Mary or two?
And now Walnuts is pulling a Palin. I told one of the profs I was going to approach prelims the Palin way -- answer the question I want to answer, not the one proposed.
Maybe add in a Mary or two?
And now Walnuts is pulling a Palin. I told one of the profs I was going to approach prelims the Palin way -- answer the question I want to answer, not the one proposed.
Deficit
Individuals living beyond their means? This again?
I like Mac's connection of the deficit to the oil crisis. Good thing no on has noticed the barrel price is at $72.
Mac, overall is looking aggressive and passionate, but not angry. Obama is definitely on the defensive.
Obama is excusing earmarks - am I the only one hearing this?
The audience ON LONG ISLAND just applauded for Mac's line about running against Bush. The link with Bloomberg on the spending freeze was key-- he's popular locally (they're letting him take a third term!) Not like NY is in play, but shows he knows his shit.
Good challenge at the end to stand up to Dems.
I like Mac's connection of the deficit to the oil crisis. Good thing no on has noticed the barrel price is at $72.
Mac, overall is looking aggressive and passionate, but not angry. Obama is definitely on the defensive.
Obama is excusing earmarks - am I the only one hearing this?
The audience ON LONG ISLAND just applauded for Mac's line about running against Bush. The link with Bloomberg on the spending freeze was key-- he's popular locally (they're letting him take a third term!) Not like NY is in play, but shows he knows his shit.
Good challenge at the end to stand up to Dems.
PAYGO
Maybe I shouldn't have had that third beer...
Ok, PAYGO is a good idea in practice, but please remember Obama, and most likely Walnuts, that you don't have the authority to handle the budget. If you wanted that, you should stay in the Senate. The line item veto was declared unconstitutional, remember?
I don't care which side you're on, all this shit about reducing earmarks and PAYGO does NOT fall under the purview of the president.
PS -- McCain, don't mention the Depression. Sure you were alive during it, but mentioning that just reinforces that idea.
Ok, PAYGO is a good idea in practice, but please remember Obama, and most likely Walnuts, that you don't have the authority to handle the budget. If you wanted that, you should stay in the Senate. The line item veto was declared unconstitutional, remember?
I don't care which side you're on, all this shit about reducing earmarks and PAYGO does NOT fall under the purview of the president.
PS -- McCain, don't mention the Depression. Sure you were alive during it, but mentioning that just reinforces that idea.
Joe phrases
Average Joe
Sloppy Joe
Joe Schmoe
All offensive to my people-- the Joes. End discrimination against the Joes. Take these phrases out of the vernacular.
You, Ms. Sykes, are anti-Joe
Sloppy Joe
Joe Schmoe
All offensive to my people-- the Joes. End discrimination against the Joes. Take these phrases out of the vernacular.
You, Ms. Sykes, are anti-Joe
And another thing
Why is every anecdotal character named "Joe"?
Oooh, Walnuts just mentioned class warfare!
And Warren Buffet was dragged in. Sweet...
And McCain, cutting off Obama when he said he wouldn't mind paying more taxes was STUPID. YOU JUST CUT OFF A SOUNDBYTE FOR AN AD!
Oooh, Walnuts just mentioned class warfare!
And Warren Buffet was dragged in. Sweet...
And McCain, cutting off Obama when he said he wouldn't mind paying more taxes was STUPID. YOU JUST CUT OFF A SOUNDBYTE FOR AN AD!
Bob Wizzlebergerwitzsmith
SO GLAD Mac brought that point up.
"Joe the plumber" getting hurt is a great way to phrase it.
Obama's "tax cuts for the rich" is such a tired old line and it saddens me that its so empty and effective.
Mac's cuts are not JUST for oil companies, its for ALL companies and individuals. No kidding they get the biggest cuts, they're the biggest companies.
Obama understands nothing of small business; Mac is calling him on it right now. Tax increases are never a positive, but somehow, Obama is playing it off.
And who are these 95% of working families? This is imaginary, and makes zero sense.
Mac does need to stop laughing at his own jokes.
"Joe the plumber" getting hurt is a great way to phrase it.
Obama's "tax cuts for the rich" is such a tired old line and it saddens me that its so empty and effective.
Mac's cuts are not JUST for oil companies, its for ALL companies and individuals. No kidding they get the biggest cuts, they're the biggest companies.
Obama understands nothing of small business; Mac is calling him on it right now. Tax increases are never a positive, but somehow, Obama is playing it off.
And who are these 95% of working families? This is imaginary, and makes zero sense.
Mac does need to stop laughing at his own jokes.
Dear Obama
Stop agreeing with McCain.
Additionally, I may have liked you during primary season if you had specifics. Granted, your specifics still aren't wonky enough for me, but at least they now exist.
Additionally, I may have liked you during primary season if you had specifics. Granted, your specifics still aren't wonky enough for me, but at least they now exist.
Barry's opening
Worst since Great Depression? I keep hearing this, but is that really true?
His four point plan:
His four point plan:
- Cutting tax breaks on companies, no matter where employees are, leads to less jobs.
- Missed point #2, getting angry.
- Paying back less to banks is what will happen in anyone's plan.
- What was it, he listed a bunch of different things, that's it!
Schieffer
Strong start by Schieffer so far. He looks alive.
McCain, on the other hand, opened with the same "Americans are hurting" line... again.
And Mac-- stop trying to out-leftist a leftist.
McCain, on the other hand, opened with the same "Americans are hurting" line... again.
And Mac-- stop trying to out-leftist a leftist.
And so it begins...
I love Bob Schieffer. There is something about Texans, seeing as how I identify as one, that I love. I subscribe to the Face the Nation podcast and still make a point to switch over to his final comments (and lately, most of his show). There's something about Texans. Just look at the dominate figures in US government in the past half-century. Rayburn, LBJ, Speaker Wright, Tom "The Hammer" DeLay, and even Rove and Dubya. Texans dominate the political processes. We are badasses.
I do hope Schieffer acts like a good Texan tonight. And by that I mean brash, blunt, and brazen. I hope he calls both candidates out for not answering questions. I hope he asks real questions and not just segues for talking points. I hope he forces the two to interact with one another and address the real issues.
I hope he makes it interesting, for lack of a better expression. I'm hoping that this Texan doesn't disappoint me and manages to bring a more intellectual dimension to this.
And so it begins now... I'm on MSNBC.
I do hope Schieffer acts like a good Texan tonight. And by that I mean brash, blunt, and brazen. I hope he calls both candidates out for not answering questions. I hope he asks real questions and not just segues for talking points. I hope he forces the two to interact with one another and address the real issues.
I hope he makes it interesting, for lack of a better expression. I'm hoping that this Texan doesn't disappoint me and manages to bring a more intellectual dimension to this.
And so it begins now... I'm on MSNBC.
Important decisions
Oh, and I also forgot. I finally made an important decision about what to drink for the debate tonight. My goal is to get through some Dogfish Head in honor of Biden's home state, and later move on to a California Cabernet Sauvignon. I would go with one of the two French wines I bought at a cooperative food market in the People's Republic of Carrboro, but I can't figure out what vintage is on one of them and the other I have found out post-purchase is a Merlot.
The election is over
Sorry Joe, but the election is over. Theoretically, the economy is a strong predictor of who wins -- if it's doing well the incumbent party does well. If it blows, like this one that just plummeted another 700 points (so net loss of roughly 2200 points in a few weeks), then the out party does well. Additionally, given the low approval of Dubya, most likely the policy mood in America is leaning liberal because of dissatisfaction with the current conservative reign. For further proof, this is just the error correction mechanism in response to the 2002 elections (Erikson et al 2002). And how do you make manifest that liberal mood? Voting Democrat in this two-party system we're resigned to by Duverge's Law.*
So in a typical cycle, the economy would dominate as the most salient issue. There'd be some random secondary issue that would help split the vote a bit better, but right now it's not. The economy is, as always, the most salient issue and right now the ONLY salient issue for the mass public. Because of the stupidity of the American voter, they believe that the President is responsible for the economy's status. I don't care who you say really is, the public doesn't get it. They think the President is in charge and they vote along party-lines based on that. And that's why Obama will win. There is so much data on this that you can't deny it.
Plus, we can also go into momentum theory. Look at the fact that NORTH DAKOTA is now not a solid red state. This is going to be a landslide unless Osama bin Laden comes out within the next 72 hours with his head on a stick. It's all about bandwagonning and cascades. Forget about the Bradley Effect, the margin is entirely too large if it's really at 14.
Sigh, if only people listened to political scientists... Or if only I had wagered money on Intrade in February.
By the way, I LOVE that this election disproves the political-business cycle!
*For full disclosure, the economy and mood theories are the big ideas from one of my advisors, and I had to reread the book cited last night for my MA proposal draft. So this idea has been dominating my thinking for the past 24 hours. Hopefully I didn't fuck up Macropolitics too much in this cursory description of it.
So in a typical cycle, the economy would dominate as the most salient issue. There'd be some random secondary issue that would help split the vote a bit better, but right now it's not. The economy is, as always, the most salient issue and right now the ONLY salient issue for the mass public. Because of the stupidity of the American voter, they believe that the President is responsible for the economy's status. I don't care who you say really is, the public doesn't get it. They think the President is in charge and they vote along party-lines based on that. And that's why Obama will win. There is so much data on this that you can't deny it.
Plus, we can also go into momentum theory. Look at the fact that NORTH DAKOTA is now not a solid red state. This is going to be a landslide unless Osama bin Laden comes out within the next 72 hours with his head on a stick. It's all about bandwagonning and cascades. Forget about the Bradley Effect, the margin is entirely too large if it's really at 14.
Sigh, if only people listened to political scientists... Or if only I had wagered money on Intrade in February.
By the way, I LOVE that this election disproves the political-business cycle!
*For full disclosure, the economy and mood theories are the big ideas from one of my advisors, and I had to reread the book cited last night for my MA proposal draft. So this idea has been dominating my thinking for the past 24 hours. Hopefully I didn't fuck up Macropolitics too much in this cursory description of it.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
More on Biden
You forgot the new revelations about botox that came out today.
I've also started to notice, at least on my end, that it's far more fun to talk about the VP selections. Is the same true for the Reps? The VPs are just better characters to analyze. Palin's just, well, Tina Fey really does put it best. And Biden asking the guy in the wheelchair to stand up just makes you want to say "Well shucks Joe, you're always gonna screw up something, arencha?" Unfortunately, we haven't been treated to as many gaffes from him as I'd like. Watching the two VP candidates I have come to understand the fascination some people have with NASCAR. I keep watching and hoping for the verbal equivalent of a car crash.
Then compare that dynamic to "my friends" McCain and the cool, calm and collected Obama. Where's the excitement with them? Unless McCain goes postal, which I do believe he is capable of (and then calling it a maverick move), the two Presidential nominess are just going to be wonky tomrrow night. B-O-R-I-N-G. It's like watching Roger Federer play damn near anyone at Wimbleon -- you pretty much already know what's going to happen, so why bother?
And that's why I drink to the debates. And may or may not have started channeling Dennis Miller, minus the conservatism.
As for that nickname, to give you an idea as to how old this Blogger account is, I was still on good terms with the person who gave me that nickname. I stopped using this account when I switched over to Wordpress a while back. I finally realized I still had that name up today and changed it. I'll tell you the story behind it later, but it involves my favorite AIM stalker.
I've also started to notice, at least on my end, that it's far more fun to talk about the VP selections. Is the same true for the Reps? The VPs are just better characters to analyze. Palin's just, well, Tina Fey really does put it best. And Biden asking the guy in the wheelchair to stand up just makes you want to say "Well shucks Joe, you're always gonna screw up something, arencha?" Unfortunately, we haven't been treated to as many gaffes from him as I'd like. Watching the two VP candidates I have come to understand the fascination some people have with NASCAR. I keep watching and hoping for the verbal equivalent of a car crash.
Then compare that dynamic to "my friends" McCain and the cool, calm and collected Obama. Where's the excitement with them? Unless McCain goes postal, which I do believe he is capable of (and then calling it a maverick move), the two Presidential nominess are just going to be wonky tomrrow night. B-O-R-I-N-G. It's like watching Roger Federer play damn near anyone at Wimbleon -- you pretty much already know what's going to happen, so why bother?
And that's why I drink to the debates. And may or may not have started channeling Dennis Miller, minus the conservatism.
As for that nickname, to give you an idea as to how old this Blogger account is, I was still on good terms with the person who gave me that nickname. I stopped using this account when I switched over to Wordpress a while back. I finally realized I still had that name up today and changed it. I'll tell you the story behind it later, but it involves my favorite AIM stalker.
A note on Senator Biden
I have extra-special permission to mock Joe Biden for several reasons:
- Amanda lives like 10 blocks from him and I've seen the outside (cue Matt Beato telling me he's been to his house... we know Beato, we know)
- I have actually been to all the places he claims to go to in Wilmington (except for Katie's on Union St. because, well, it's been closed for 20 years).
- As a balding man, I have no respect for anyone who goes Chia-Pet and gets the plugs (though if I had the money and could do it before I turned 30, I would probably consider it too). But for the time being, he is a disgrace to all current and future chrome domes.
- I've never tried to make a paraplegic stand up.
Rules for the Debating of the Debate
I do have to say, excepting that one time I got drunk at a semi-classy restaurant, I have not seen Dean Gene around campus. And my horrible, horrible building is near the law school.
My guidelines are as follows:
My guidelines are as follows:
- I will be doing this Hunter S. Thompson style. See the last time I did a debate in this fashion to find out more. I will be consuming far more this time, however. Joe, I encourage you to do the same. Because I'm so patriotic, I'm opting for a California Cabernet, not the Australian Shiraz I have lying around.
- To shorten up the typing, McCain is now Mac, though Obama is Obama. Or maybe The Big O. Haven't decided yet.
- Palin I will refer to as "That nutjob who thinks dinosaurs and men walked the earth together."
- Biden, well, he's too boring to reference. Seriously, where has the gaffe machine gone?
For the Record...
For the record-
- I didn't fire Gene; he quit like a baby when I helped to force the hands of those who could fire him to "not renew his contract"
- I will refer to Barak (Insert Middle Name that I won't get accused of racism for saying) Obama as "Barry"
- This is awesome
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