Just in case...

In case anyone still looks at this: Don't worry, I'm not still crying/formulating a response. Law school has just stopped me from writing. (Maybe) See you in a few weeks

Results

On the electoral count, so far it seems I was one state off -- Ohio. Assuming Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and North Carolina go R, which does not seem unreasonable.

I'm watching the Obama speech now, and it's generic. Minus the newfound emphasis on the racial dimension of politics. I like it, but given Obama's standard it's nothing exceptional.

I think I'm still on a life high from seeing my students on Franklin Street. Joe, we're old or are getting there. I notice myself moderating my views, from communist to socialist. But on Franklin Street, before the police blocked us off, I saw some of my students. And they were excited about democracy (note the small "d"), and hopefully it'll stick. You and I are political junkies, but I hope these kids stay political.

While watching the Obama speech, the people crying about his election, I finally get the pull of his candidacy. All day I've felt close to crying, and I started out as a Hillary supporter. (For no other reason than she could break a hold in the Senate.) But here I am, behind Obama and hoping nothing crazy happens in the next few days.

I finally get the "hope" message. It's not about policy but about how we, as a collective, can overcome the second dimension of politics, which is so trivial when you get right down to it (even though you are friends with Coggin and Locher who pay more attention to it than they should). As I was told last year, race has always been an issue in American politics that no one has handled well. It's not whether or not we actually overcome the problems, but that we're at least willign to tackle it head-on. One of the problems of growing up in El Paso is that you don't fully realize how much race still plays into American politics. Maybe America can be more like El Paso in that sense as a result of this election.

I also like that the results were called pre-midnight. Oh, newest prediction: stock markets rise world-wide tomorrow.

Election: 1
Accomplishing anything for class tomorrow: 0

On top of which I just disrupted a class meeting early to handle the voting stuff.

Senate

Whoops, forgot about that one.. Just copying and changing what Joe says as I see fit

• AK - D Beigich over Stevens. Jenn says scandal will dominate
  
• GA - Run-off, followed by D victory because of existing Obama infrastructure
  
• CO - D Udall
• KY - R McConnell. We won't know for a while though.
  
• LA - D Landrieu. That one's been over for a while.
  
• MN - D Franken. All I've learned from having an advisor who studies MN politics is they get wacky. Really wacky.
  
• NH - D Shaheen. Jenn says look at the vote in Dixville Notch to see NH is going to be a D blowout.
  
• NC - D Hagan. Took me a while to get to thinking she'll win, but the latest insider numbers I heard of have Hagan up 3.
  
• OR - D Merkeley. Obama coattails
  
• CT - Lieberman. Why did I once date a guy who worked for him, seriously? What was I thinking as a freshman?
• MS - R Wicker. Same with GA. Huge black turnout comes into play. Only difference is that with the lack of Obama infrastructure in MS, the R wins.
  

"The Common Sense Effect"

A great take on the Bradley Effect by Newt

Some comments on Jenn's last one

OK, so I can't function at all today and just read her posts after saying I wasn't going to.. oy.

I think race is a factor as well, and I think that Jenn might be right about the undecideds. But I would also knock 3-5% off of Obama's numbers, depending on the state. But I don't think its a race thing as much as its just popular thing to go for the guy who is winning.

Also, the key to factor in is how much Obama looks establishment now and how, ironically, some people may actually see Mac as a Maverick. They see "underdog" and think "maverick." I could have pushed a few more swing states to Mac had his numbers been a bit stronger this week to really make an upset look like a closer chance. Americans love that story of a heroic comeback (see Bill Clinton circa 1992, all the Rocky movies, any sports movie, etc).

Finally, something tells me that Palin may be more of a factor. ENPR says that PA is only in play because of her and I think that's right. I think the numbers to watch here are her TV ratings. I don't think that many Americans are tuning in to her debate and appearance on SNL because they hate her. I don't consider her convention speech as a factor, as it was her intro... although pulling a Barry-like audience says something too.

But as we all know, Americans will vote for the people they want to see more of (see every reality TV show). Hence Barry's over-saturation could prove costly. If Palin has resonated at all, Mac can take it.

If they don't win, I want Newt Gingrich as RNC head until 2010, and Palin after that. (Newt if they win or lose)

My predictions - terribly unscientific and relatively brief

The election is maddening, and I can't wait for it to be over. I'm going to post up my prediction that got me to 269-269... son of a bitch! And then also my Senate count.

Swing States (as stated by RCP):

• Virginia - McCain +2
• North Carolina - McCain +4
• Florida - McCain +2
• Missouri - McCain +1
• Indiana - McCain +1
• Georgia - McCain +5
• Montana - McCain +7
• Arizona - McCain +4
• Ohio - McCain +1
• Colorado - McCain +1
• Nevada - Obama +4
• Pennsylvania - Obama +5
• New Mexico - Obama +7
• South Dakota - McCain +8
• West Virginia - McCain +8
• Aransas - McCain +9

So that makes it a tie. Fucking A. Although I have PA for Obama, it might swing if Mac is having a good day - maybe my other predictions suggest it, just naturally, by demographics. But I have no idea. I think Nevada is still possible as well, but I feel the rest are definitely going blue. Here's to hoping the bankrupting coal comments by Barry mean something to Ohio, PA and others.

Senate

• AK - D Beigich over Stevens (idiots up there nominating that guy while he's facing charges - good call morons)
• GA - R Chambliss holds
• CO - D Udall
• KY - R McConnell holds
• LA - D Landrieu holds
• MN - R Coleman holds (they may be silly enough to vote for a wrestler for governor, but no way people walk into that both and pull the lever for Stuart Smiley)
• NH - D Shaheen takes out Sunnunu (sorry pal, you're not your dad. Get your shit together, come back for the next one)
• NC - R Dole holds (despite her inept, defeatist campaigning and seeming inability to function, people in NC will play it safe)
• OR - D Merkeley by a hair over Smith
• CT - Lieberman will grow a pair and caucus with the Republicans

If I missed any let me know and I will update. I have no idea what it adds up to but I think under 60 for Dems. I'm too stressed to do math (hence, I attend law school).

Overall, I would be happy with a McCain win and less than 60 in the Senate, but no matter what, the right is going to need to take control of the Republican Party again, or jump ship for another. The worst part is (and Matt Beato agrees with this, so don't let him tell you otherwise) that if McCain loses, the biggest conservative victory of the year is Nichol's ouster. I brainstormed the other day and asked around and sadly, we can't find much of anything else besides that and a handful of other campus triumphs. Clearly, that means they shoudl put me in charge of this thing.

Am I losing my mind? Only slightly more than the usual pace. With my Adult ADD in full swing today, I shoudl be back to check for more posts from Jenn - and maybe I will actually take 10 minutes and read one of them and respond (sorry!)

Electoral Guesstimates

Cross-posted on my personal blog

I went conservative. I don't know the totals, but keep all the Kerry states (including PA because of GOTV in Philly barely countering the rural vote), and add on FL, VA, NV, NM, IA, and CO. NM, CO, VA, IA, and NV I'm confident on. FL I was torn between it or OH. Then decided against OH for the reason I almost put PA for McCain.

Last week I spent a lot of time reading about the question of a second dimension in American politics (based on NOMINATE scores). The conclusion is that if there is one, it involves race and only matters when race appears on the agenda. Guess what -- race is on the agenda right now.

All the talk on the Bradley Effect really is hype. The undecided numbers are about 7-9 percent in polls, which tells me these people aren't undecided but actually closest racists. Instead of whites reporting they'll vote for a black candidate, they just claim to be undecided. This is only a hypothesis, but I'm basing it on a mix of what I could expect from good old political science theory and some of what I've seen on the ground. And by on the ground I mean from my family.

That's why I'm so low on the electoral count. Everyone else is predicting a blowout for Obama, which would make sense if the racial dimension weren't active. That's why my moving swing states are the ones they are. NH is New England and I don't care what McCain thinks, it's just not going to go to him because it's New England. CO, NM, NV, and FL all have high minority populations that are going to break Obama. Even the Cubans in FL don't seem pleased with the Rs right now. My reasoning behind VA and IA going Obama explains my placement of PA as an Obama state -- high turnout in liberal areas counteracting the racist sections. Basically, Obama's got a superior ground game in those three states. And that will make all the difference.

What I didn't include for Obama were OH, NC, MT, the Dakotas, MO, GA, and IN. For starters, MT and the Dakotas are driven by Ron Paul pipe dreams. They think he'll play the Nader role but for some reason in the past decade voters have become incredibly sophisticated and when they see competition they go safe. For these states, especially MT, that means McCain. I'd have said the same thing for NV except for the minority population being greater than the rural Paultards. OH and GA have problems with voters being challenged in urban areas. Though the courts seem favorable to allowing more people to vote, something tells me that will be challenged and changed. OH and GA also face the same problems that I cite for NC, MO, and IN -- race. What role is it playing in these states? I'm assuming the white undecideds will break evenly between McCain and Obama, giving McCain the edge. Typically, they should break more towards Obama since the economic conditions favor the Dems.

In the end I still have an Obama victory. And I put the Senate at 59 caucusing with the Ds, assuming (quite confidently) that the inevitable GA runoff goes to the D and Liebermann stays D (less sure on that last assumption).

Polls, swings, and margins

So I could totally geek out on you and try to argue that polls are unit roots with drift or other fancy time-series buzzwords to explain why you're wrong Joe, but I have forgotten what most of those words mean since it's been two years since taking Prof. Moody's class. The point is that the polls do swing, but they have a stable mean even if the variance is rather high. In the end what matters is that mean. I'd guess (but have no actual proof) that the variance is actually shrinking at this point compared to October.

Wild swings are expected in polls. People respond to some stimuli that day that fades away in about a week (see Zaller's recent work on the decay factor on campaign ads). This means that variance in the polls can be expected. Besides, there's questions about how well-matched the samples always are, what the current events are, who was on the news more that day... in other words, a fair number of trite external events are driving how people respond to a poll. This is what generates that variance.

Polls involve knee-jerk reactions from members as well, whereas voting does not. Voting you sit in a booth, isolated, and can think without the noise from the outside at that moment. Polls demand instantaneous repsonses. There will be more fluctuation in the polls because of the reasons outlined above.

Plus, we're talking a number of different polling houses. Who knows what goes on under the hood in each one with sampling, timing, frequency, etc? Come on Joe -- we both took Rapoport's class, we should know this! (And hell, I took a class that talked about it in the spring, I should definitely know this, especially since I have a test on it in the fall.) Comparing different poll estimates to one another is a futile effort. That's why most serious polling analysts take averages using some algorithm to handle the differences in techniques used for questions, sampling, etc.

In other words, expect Obama to win. Once again I'm going to impersonate Paul Begala and say it's because of the economy. That's what drives people's voting decisions consistently, and should be especially true this year. The incumbent President's party (because people blame the President more than the Congress), will suffer for this.

Oh, and Joe, don't try to cite evidence of people blaming Congress. Those are strong Republicans and will view it that way anyway. What matters, as always, is that 10 to 20 percent of the population that acts truly independently. Those types do not get nearly as much coverage in the popular press (I hypothesize) because they are far less likely to attend political rallies and end up encountering the media types. So what the media shows is biased against giving us a picture of the independents who vote on the economy and vote against the current President's party when things are going badly.

And hey, I'm not in the wrong field. Oddly enough, most of the big academic work on political polls has come out of UNC -- check out one of the faculty member's websites, which tracks the polls and explains them. It was cited as a good source for our office pool because one of our tie-breakers is the popular vote breakdown (except we included Barr). Currently he's got Obama at about 54 percent and has had him there for the past week. And frankly, I'd trust Stimson's means of averaging the polls more than fivethirtyeight or Pollster -- he's been doing it for decades with another faculty member, MacKuen, and neither have messed up too badly. (Also, MacKuen is good friends with Rapoport, so you should read these guys anyway.)

Polling, exit polls, turnouts etc

I think its all a bunch of bull. How can one poll give Barry 11 points and another give McCain 1? With margin of error, that could be a swing of 16-18 points. That's nonsensical.

The cynic/hater of the leftist media in me wants to say that CBS News and NY Times are so shameless that they would outright lie about their numbers in order to pump up Obama, which could mean that outlier is bull and the range of Barry +3-7 is accurate.

But once again, on the other hand, Gallup's traditional and expanded are both showing Barry +10 which makes ZERO sense. Either youth and minorities are matching up with the mainstream or none of these pollsters have a clue.

Which begs the question: Jenn-- do you think maybe you got into the wrong field?

NC Turnout Models

Semi-final info on NC turnout. Apparently 40 percent of the (expanded?) likely electorate has voted in this state. The semi-final numbers show that early voting turnout equated 70 percent of the 2004 turnout.

Is this good or bad for McCain? Probably bad. The Obama GOTV machine is crazy, at least in the fake OC.

Plus, I think Joe and I need to make some predictions about final outcomes.

If she's lying

If that girl in Pittsburgh is lying, I am going to be more mad at her than I am at Mac and Barry put together

See Drudge

in Re: last post. And I just don't mean the story on the assault, I mean the last few weeks of stories. No kidding civility is better. But let's be honest: a few nuts yell at McCain's rally, and even the things they yell have been confirmed to be a lot tamer than originally reported. Barry, Mr. Post-Partisan, tells his people to "get in their face" if anyone dare speak against him.

Civility

So for the past few days I've been absolutely appalled by what's going on in North Carolina. You may have read about it on Politico -- when an older woman from NC asked Obama about the North American Union. If you're in the state, you may have seen the story on News 14 Carolina about how visitors to an Obama rally had their tires slashed in the parking lot. This link summarizes most of what's happened in the state the past few days. (It is a liberal-leaning blog, but it beats me posting 6 different links.)

If you've read my Facebook news feed for the past few days, you've come to realize just how shocked and disgusted I am by this behavior. It's juvenile and coming from adults. Maybe it's just from having family concentrated in Orange County and touristy-Carteret County (both of which have Dem Congressmen I think), but I can't believe North Carolina has failed to move beyond the old South race relations. I mean, for crying out loud, I didn't learn about the klan until I moved to Tennessee in 1993 -- it wasn't active in this state, but now it seems like it is.

I think both Joe and I can agree that this behavior is beyond the pale. I think we can both cite ourselves as examples of how you can be civil and disagree. We debate and discuss in words, and are mature enough to agree to disagree. I'm not going to go out and slash Joe's tires for liking McCain, and he's not going to leave a dead bear in my driveway and throw my Obama-Biden car magnet on top of it.

Crying Inside

Joe Biden is a Joebetrayer

“I don’t have any Joe the Plumbers in my neighborhood that make $250,000 a year that are worried,” Biden said on NBC’s Today show. “The Joe the Plumbers in my neighborhood, the Joe the Cops in my neighborhood, the Joe the Grocery Store Owners in my neighborhood...”

More serious responses later

More on Joe the Plumber

The way Joe the Plumber has been handled reminds me of how Palin was in the beginning.

You find some person that will appeal to a target demographic on the surface and neglect to find out anything else about them.

I'm not going to make that "it shows further poor judgment" argument. I don't think Walnuts had much say in the references to Joe the Plumber (not sure the level on the VP choice but I don't think Walnuts had the final say).

Instead, I think it shows how stretched Walnuts' staff is. He's got Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis doing more roles than they should. Just based on a mutual acquaintance of Joe and me's having left the campaign, I can't help but think that camp is bleeding good people and replacing them with questionable ones.

I agree with most stories saying the McCain campaign is being mismanaged. I can't tell if it's being micromanaged too much or if the subadvisors are just not good enough for a Pres run, but something's wrong with this campaign.

Joe discrimination continues in the classroom

My Civ Pro professor just referred to the differences in who to pick for a jury in Teamsters v. Terry, a 1990 USSC case:

Joe the Plumber - as a business owner
Joe Six Pack - Regular guy
Ordinary Joe - Regular guy

Ordinary Jill got thrown in there too, but that was just trying to appease me.

She also just referred to the Great Depression as "The First Great Depression." And they say conservatives are fear mongers...

I agree with Joe

re: Fear Factor

Tell us how we did

Done for now

Fear Factor:

If people think Obama explained Ayers and ACORN enough, he wins.

Fear

It works-- Joe the Plumber in a bind, Obama hanging with Ayers and ACORN scares people and pushes those on the fence to either not vote or vote Mac.

Nielson ratings

With a baseball playoff game, the viewership is down -- probably near 50 million.

Assume bias towards over-reporting watching, so true viewership at 40 million.

Drop off because this was boring, around 25-30 million.

Missed MSNBC panel

Please fill me in

and Jenn is right on perception

Begala and Carville

MSNBC is bringing up the ACORN and Ayers thing.

It's irrelevant. To directly quote the man I wanted to be when I was 7 (seriously), James Carville*:

IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!

See my earlier post on why the election is over. Nothing changed tonight. There wasn't much of an opportunity for it to. If there'd been more of an economic focus it might have, but so far the dominate issue is still the economy and the frame and perception hasn't changed.

Though I find myself, on MSNBC, agreeing with Mike Murphy. Obama was more defensive. Joe the Plumber won. All of this avoided the economy and Walnuts failed.

*Seriously, since I was a tiny child I wanted to be a strategist, not President. Since roughly seven or eight years of age I have known who James Carville is.

Perception

Andrea Mitchell, not my favorite MSNBC anchor (I'm biased towards the Morning Joe crowd, truth be told, especially my girl-crush Mika), but she raises a good points.

Facts don't matter -- perception does.

I was talking about this with one of my advisors the other day, who said the same thing. What the pundits say doesn't matter, what the facts are don't matter... in essence, the truth doesn't matter. All that matters is what the public thinks the truth is. I have no idea (nor do any pundits, but at least I admit my ignorance), how they come to these perceptions of the truth, but that's what matters.

At this point, maybe I was wrong when talking with my advisor and I can pass my comprehensive exams. Also, I'd change it to Fox News if I knew what channel it was on -- so far all I know is MSNBC (mostly for Morning Joe), Comedy Central, Vh1, BBC America, and Disney.

Fox people are missing the point

I always listen to the first round from FNC and then jump to MSNBC, then CNN...

They miss the point that Mac brought up the character issues big time-- its doubt.

Luntz group is showing it right now:
4 of the 23 changed to Obama, but the woman in the front was, as Rush would call it: a "seminar caller".

If Obama can't answer the questions on Ayers et al, he will NOT get their votes. That was clear

Joe the Plumber -- more

Joe is right.

Screw Joe Six-Pack. It's all about the Plumber. He is our new meme.

Comment, Readers!

So readers, are Joe and I an echo chamber for our own views, or did we help educate you on points and provide insightful commentary? Did we respond to one another as best we could (note, this format does not update as well as previously expected), and did we analyze the debate in ways the helped you?

I mostly ask for my own political science research purposes, so please comment on how you think we did!

Joe the Plumber

He is the issue now - THIS could be the one

Schieffer evaluation

On the whole I thought he did good. Didn't seem biased towards one side. Got his questions in that he wanted. Cut both off an equal number of times. Let them fight.

I <3 Texans.

Also, I love Michelle Obama' dress color.

Response to Joe

So in response to your points, I have no clue how ND ties in, as I said in my lengthy post. The money thing is a point of contention -- research I've done actually does show expenditure matters. I'll get back to you once I finish cleaning this project up over winter break. As for the third, the TA's are wondering which would be worse -- Obama or Walnuts? For them it's a lesser of two evils question.

Teacher's Unions

Think they're listening to Barry now? If they actually cared about their big issue, (themselves!) they would be dropping the endorsement ASAP. Too bad its just leftist ideology they agree with.

Mac on Education

Shows a real understanding here. His point on overloading money to failing districts is clear in Abbott Districts in NJ

Fill me in...

How does military power of US relate to education? Is this another Kerry gaffe saying military men can't make it to College?

Barry also needs to know that out of the US budget, military expenditures is not that large at all

Education II

This is long, because I care

Obama: OK, tie it into econ, not national defense. You're weaker on ND, so just avoid it. Wow, good job picking up that compromise on public funding and privatization. And good tie on early childhood -- given that most peeps Joe and me's age are now popping out the young ones that helps. And also most of us are in college, and we really do worry about this. Also, interesting that he's adopted a fair amount of what sounds like Hillary's position. Not the service part, but the emphasis on research/grad education. And, as good a plan as making parents work is, you better be glad Schieffer cut you off before sounding uber-liberal.

Walnuts: Standard R party line -- just mention vouchers and he's set. OK, charter schools don't work. See numerous studies since 2006 onwards when the time-series became useful. And competition, well, most studies on that have flaws (since I read most studies on that last week), namely with how they measure things. AND TFA HAS PROBLEMS WITH WHO THEY PICK WALNUTS, DO NOT GET ME STARTED. Most of this, without saying it, mirrors NCLB. Walnuts plan will result in a MASSIVE expansion of federal government, so Joe and Joe's allies, be afraid.

Obama 2: Good compromise. People like states supporting education, and you got to bash on NCLB. And nice tie-in to special education -- didn't Palin cut money for that? OK, ugh to charters. Seriously, ugh. Obama is pulling a truly moderate position on this one. OK, attack Walnuts -- and GREAT line on "I don't think America's youth are interest groups, I think they're our future." Maybe that's just my bias towards studying OIs.

Walnuts 2: OK, DC schools still blow. And if you want a vouchers example, go with Milwaukee for cryin' out loud. Headstart as a great program Walnuts? If you're culling for political points, that ain't the program you call good. So is Walnuts raise taxes? UGH, PALIN. Hey, isn't Beato autistic or something, or do we just lie about that on Wikipedia? So Walnuts on vouchers -- I'll do it when asked?

Obama 3: Hells yes the DC school system blows. I do like how Obama just ignores Walnuts politely. It makes him seem far more rational and calm. Which is how he needs to look. And now Walnuts looks smug. Or on Zoloft.

Walnuts 3: I did not get that joke, or understand what he said.

Eloquence = sly, political speak

The negative connotation is there.

Education

YES, MY FAVORITE ISSUE.

I used to single-issue vote on this...

Eloquence

Yes Walnuts, talk about the eloquence of Obama. Nothing wrong in highly complimenting your opponent.

From Chris

hippocratic oath says do no harm

says nothing about doing "good"

"Not that long ago"

Barry was in Illinois State Senate only a few years ago, but of course, he is steeped in experience right?

Obama argues for judicial activism

Easy sound byte.

Framing issues

Smart move talking about Roe in terms that appeal to conservatives sense of small government. Hopefully that frame will catch on instead of the morally driven one that dominates now.

And good move bringing up Ledbetter. I don't care what kind of woman you are -- supporting Walnuts and Palin in light of that decision is just wrong. If Palin's right and there's a special place in hell for not supporting other women (assuming, as I don't, that there is a heaven and hell), then Palin, for you not being on board with Ledbetter, you can guess where I'll be seeing you.

Be careful Mac!

Nice dance move at the end by Mac saying that someone that agrees with Roe isn't qualified. WOW. That's the trickiest he's been yet.

Federalism

Hey Mac, a federalist is one who BELIEVES IN STRONGER NATIONAL GOVERNMENT. NOT WHAT YOU JUST DEFINED.

That would be what Joe and I's illustrious alum -- Thomas Jefferson -- was. An ANTI-Federalist.

Taxes

Obama's right. Anytime you tax anything the business passes the buck onto the consumers or employees (by cutting them). It's just how it works.

And now onto Roe. You know, Dubya said the same thing...

Liberal

Finally, Walnuts uses a dirty word/phrase -- big government.

Is it just me, or have I not heard "liberal" all that much, if at all, tonight. I don't care how pissed off the public is about Bush's failures, liberal still carries a highly negative connotation. Why isn't Walnuts using it?

AND CAN WE MOVE AWAY FROM JOE THE PLUMBER ONTO MARY THE BAKER?

Thank you Mac

Thanks for reading "Jenn and Joe debate" and recognizing Joe the Plumber's plight. His plan actually sounds legit tonight and points out that he wants people to decide for themselves, not the government.

Senator Government should have been said on purpose! That should be used in the next 3 weeks.

FINALLY! Democrats have been running Congress! Surprise!

Define small businesses

His numbers on that change, and also make no sense. Joe the Plumber would be FUCKED-- Mac has to stress that and Obama can't defend it.

NEED MORE BEER

BRB

No Joe

Drilling futures do matter, FOR THREE WEEKS. Then we're back to random walk pricing with a reversion to the real trend line. Study 'metrics, then it'll make sense.

Also, back to Joe the Plumber....

Why drilling matters NOW and forever

Oil contracts are based on futures: if people know now there will be more oil later, they don't buy the contracts now. Average contract length is 5 years in advance. Even before the stock drop, barrel prices shot down thanks the Newt's "Drill Here Drill Now Pay Less" movement and the restriction on off-shore expiring without renewal.

High in the middle and round on the ends

Why are they always referencing peeps from Ohio, yo?

Obama = HOOVER

Hahahahaha. Well played, sir.
Barry giggled again

Jenn beat Beato to the SA bill link

Labor Leaders

I know a few things about Colombian labor leaders... as does Joe...

On the first link, search my last name.

Columbia Free Trade

I don't necessarily agree with NAFTA, but the Columbia plan sounds pretty good the way Mac presents it.

Labor leaders attacked in Columbia... I think that was a Senate bill about Coca-Cola. Beato, please post it in the comments.

Barry will "enforce unfair trade agreements." WOOPS!

People not getting car loans is a lie. Try it yourself.

Barry is already putting conditions on his money giveaways to businesss-- tough shit GM!

Wind turbines don't do shit.

Energy II

Solar, oil, wind... sounds like the Pickens plan.

Or what Mark Warner campaigned on during his Pres run, which was brilliant.

Now I only minored in economics, and mathematical economics at that, but it seems to me the best way to stimulate the economy is to go the R&D route and change the rules of the game. It shifts the aggregate curves and makes things better for us on the whole.

OK Mac, offshore drilling now will have no effect for 10 years. Might reduce prices for three weeks, but no more. It's not anything beyond a stunt. Ask anyone who minored in economics (or just suffered through Econ 101 with Haulman).

Barry on Energy and Trade

Expand domestic production - too bad those acres can't be drilled on or are ineffective. Look at offshore drilling? Its allowed already.

I am pretty sure Barry has no clue how trade works. We're getting a lot of "uh" and "umms." The South Korean example saying that isn't free trade is just WRONG.

FP

FYI, Lugar, a leading figure on foreign policy for R's, just endorsed Obama. Not a smart move by Walnuts to go after a dude on something members of your own party agree with. And Lugar's highly respected and been known for years, better than Biden, on these issues...

Even if his CoS went to Duke.

NUKES

Should have mentioned France has them to ensure the safety issue-- always works.

Barry is laughing again.

Energy

Well, I would normally expect these two to agree on this subject. Walnuts has done some decent work on environmental regulation. The question is, how far has he gone into, to quote Stewart, "crazy base world," and will change his answer to reflect that?

So far the oil things sound semi-similar...

Both went positive only for their people

But Bob is egging them on...

Barry passes on the bait. Or not...
Indirect insult to Palin that she doesn't support things that she should. Its her fucking kid man, you can't touch that.

Biden is getting hit, but strictly on foreign policy, outright saying he's wrong.

Spending more = bad. Nice point. Needs to add that the "government spending" is TAX MONEY!

Maverick

Waiting for that key word to drink to...

Note

Joe and I agreed on something -- Obama shouldn't giggle.

VP Question

Should be JUICY

When Mac still finds holes after the explanation, that means the story isn't complete

Barry laughing over McCain's answer is arrogant, and what Mac got knocked for last time.



From a friend:

Chris: obama really needs to stop inappropriately laughing

its obnoxious

Giggling

OBAMA -- DO NOT GIGGLE. YOU SEEM LIKE AN ELITIST.

Though Walnuts, you do seem like a semi-senile old man who can only remember talking points and not think on his feet, a characteristic a president desperately needs.

I mean, both stick to the points, but at least Obama can adapt them to a new question.

Explaining Ayers

"Radical domestic group" are terrorists.

Mac, you best hit him hard on his answer. I hope Barry mentions that Ayers has been "rehabilitated." If Mac was hanging with Timothy McVeigh, would that be OK?

ACORN answer ignores the donations of $800g+.

On mortgage policy Barry associates with Jim Johnson and Franklin Raines.

Obama is rational, calm, collected, and reasonable.

And explains Ayers.

This is a move that solidifies Obama as post-partisan (whether I want to believe it or not). Brilliant. Absofuckalutely brilliant. For the rest of this night, the issue is removed from the table now.

Ayers! ACORN!

Let's hear it. Laugh it up Barry! Laugh it up!

Ads

Duh Joe, he's not going to mention the Ayers ad. One of my colleagues here, and a coauthor on a publication, studied how the impact of ads isn't measured on the airtime they get but the media coverage they get.

Smart move Obama. He reads political science scholars. And, as a PhD candidate, I like that because it makes me feel important.

"We can have a debate back and forth.."

Yeh, that's why you're here, Barry

Reminding people of the terrorist tag?

Also, notice Obama will not call out McCain on his ads-- because that would give them more play. No mention of the Ayers ad

Hypocrites

Good job on calling Walnuts a hypocrite Obama. If you're gonna bitch about me having John Lewis say negative things, then you gotta get Palin and your supporters under control.

This is brinkmanship. Neither candidate will do anything on this issue, but bringing it up makes the other one look bad.

And the more I listen to Obama, the more I have come to like him. Yes, he's an intellectual. That means he's calm and collected and rational and -- guess what -- I like that.

Linking him to 527s?

REALLY? REALLY?

That is outrageous - can't wait until we link him to the MoveOn General Betray-Us ads.

Barry bitches that we aren't discussing the issues but also says that town hall meetings weren't needed.

Obama refuses to repudiate-- Mac, CALL HIM ON IT!

Stem Cells

Walnuts, if you don't support stem cell funding, you're stupid. The numbers on that issue are near-valence and it is something that the public is behind. You can't pull to the base on that one. Let Palin -- if you want to win, you have to support killing babies to cure cancer.

Your 65 percent demographic figures consist of Reagan Dems who are already voting Republican and have been for years and independents who want to seem moderate and aren't. A lot of response to those questions is how you want to be perceived, but you only pay attention to what you want to hear.

And that negative campaign ad thing works. Wanna know why? Because McCain can't run positive ones. Not because he's evil, but because positive ads gin up support and enthusiasm for a candidate. R's don't have that for Walnuts, so he's got to run negative to help himself. If he ran positive it would have zilch of an effect on the electorate.

McCain getting emotional

And calling Barry on the fact that he NEVER REPUDIATES SHIT.

Public financing points were good.

Of course Obama spent more on negative ads-- he has more! Haha! That was clever shit

G-Nic

Hey Joe, didn't Gene Nichol like John Lewis? And now McCain's called him an American hero? Using Colbert logic, doesn't that now make Nichol an American hero?

Note, I'm using Colbert logic...

Fox News shot

Obama will lose points and confirm to the 65% of people who watch FNC that are Dems and Independents that he is frustrated by anyone that questions him.

Lag?

Joe, you haven't posted in a few minutes. I wanted to be, unlike Fox News, fair and balanced.

Excuses

Jenn is making excuses of why she's lagging because Obama is getting creamed.

Earmarks

THANK YOU OBAMA FOR BRINGING UP THE FUTILITY OF EARMARKS AS A MEANS OF CURING THE BUDGET PROCESS.

For frak's sake, even Bill Frist's old budget staffer acknowledges that. And that dude's responsible for making ketchup a vegetable.

Earmarks are roughly 30 percent of the budget. Entitlement reform is what we need, and what no one will do.

Anti-Joe

Joe, I agree, we need to take the name Joe out of the discourse.

Maybe add in a Mary or two?

And now Walnuts is pulling a Palin. I told one of the profs I was going to approach prelims the Palin way -- answer the question I want to answer, not the one proposed.

Deficit

Individuals living beyond their means? This again?

I like Mac's connection of the deficit to the oil crisis. Good thing no on has noticed the barrel price is at $72.

Mac, overall is looking aggressive and passionate, but not angry. Obama is definitely on the defensive.

Obama is excusing earmarks - am I the only one hearing this?

The audience ON LONG ISLAND just applauded for Mac's line about running against Bush. The link with Bloomberg on the spending freeze was key-- he's popular locally (they're letting him take a third term!) Not like NY is in play, but shows he knows his shit.

Good challenge at the end to stand up to Dems.

PAYGO

Maybe I shouldn't have had that third beer...

Ok, PAYGO is a good idea in practice, but please remember Obama, and most likely Walnuts, that you don't have the authority to handle the budget. If you wanted that, you should stay in the Senate. The line item veto was declared unconstitutional, remember?

I don't care which side you're on, all this shit about reducing earmarks and PAYGO does NOT fall under the purview of the president.

PS -- McCain, don't mention the Depression. Sure you were alive during it, but mentioning that just reinforces that idea.

Joe phrases

Average Joe

Sloppy Joe

Joe Schmoe

All offensive to my people-- the Joes. End discrimination against the Joes. Take these phrases out of the vernacular.

You, Ms. Sykes, are anti-Joe

Deficit

I LOVE BOB SCHIEFFER! "Aren't you both ignoring reality?"

And another thing

Why is every anecdotal character named "Joe"?

Oooh, Walnuts just mentioned class warfare!

And Warren Buffet was dragged in. Sweet...

And McCain, cutting off Obama when he said he wouldn't mind paying more taxes was STUPID. YOU JUST CUT OFF A SOUNDBYTE FOR AN AD!

The Palin Effect

"95 percent of ya..."

Obama is picking up on Palin's idiosyncrasies. STOP, now!

Bob Wizzlebergerwitzsmith

SO GLAD Mac brought that point up.

"Joe the plumber" getting hurt is a great way to phrase it.

Obama's "tax cuts for the rich" is such a tired old line and it saddens me that its so empty and effective.

Mac's cuts are not JUST for oil companies, its for ALL companies and individuals. No kidding they get the biggest cuts, they're the biggest companies.

Obama understands nothing of small business; Mac is calling him on it right now. Tax increases are never a positive, but somehow, Obama is playing it off.

And who are these 95% of working families? This is imaginary, and makes zero sense.

Mac does need to stop laughing at his own jokes.

Stop smiling!

OK, both of you, stop smiling. Obama looks smug, and Walnuts looks like Moe Sizlak.

Dear Obama

Stop agreeing with McCain.

Additionally, I may have liked you during primary season if you had specifics. Granted, your specifics still aren't wonky enough for me, but at least they now exist.

Barry's opening

Worst since Great Depression? I keep hearing this, but is that really true?

His four point plan:

1. Cutting tax breaks on companies, no matter where employees are, leads to less jobs.
2. Missed point #2, getting angry.
3. Paying back less to banks is what will happen in anyone's plan.
   
4. What was it, he listed a bunch of different things, that's it!
   

Schieffer

Strong start by Schieffer so far. He looks alive.

McCain, on the other hand, opened with the same "Americans are hurting" line... again.

And Mac-- stop trying to out-leftist a leftist.

And so it begins...

I love Bob Schieffer. There is something about Texans, seeing as how I identify as one, that I love. I subscribe to the Face the Nation podcast and still make a point to switch over to his final comments (and lately, most of his show). There's something about Texans. Just look at the dominate figures in US government in the past half-century. Rayburn, LBJ, Speaker Wright, Tom "The Hammer" DeLay, and even Rove and Dubya. Texans dominate the political processes. We are badasses.

I do hope Schieffer acts like a good Texan tonight. And by that I mean brash, blunt, and brazen. I hope he calls both candidates out for not answering questions. I hope he asks real questions and not just segues for talking points. I hope he forces the two to interact with one another and address the real issues.

I hope he makes it interesting, for lack of a better expression. I'm hoping that this Texan doesn't disappoint me and manages to bring a more intellectual dimension to this.

And so it begins now... I'm on MSNBC.

Important decisions

Oh, and I also forgot. I finally made an important decision about what to drink for the debate tonight. My goal is to get through some Dogfish Head in honor of Biden's home state, and later move on to a California Cabernet Sauvignon. I would go with one of the two French wines I bought at a cooperative food market in the People's Republic of Carrboro, but I can't figure out what vintage is on one of them and the other I have found out post-purchase is a Merlot.

The election is over

Sorry Joe, but the election is over. Theoretically, the economy is a strong predictor of who wins -- if it's doing well the incumbent party does well. If it blows, like this one that just plummeted another 700 points (so net loss of roughly 2200 points in a few weeks), then the out party does well. Additionally, given the low approval of Dubya, most likely the policy mood in America is leaning liberal because of dissatisfaction with the current conservative reign. For further proof, this is just the error correction mechanism in response to the 2002 elections (Erikson et al 2002). And how do you make manifest that liberal mood? Voting Democrat in this two-party system we're resigned to by Duverge's Law.*

So in a typical cycle, the economy would dominate as the most salient issue. There'd be some random secondary issue that would help split the vote a bit better, but right now it's not. The economy is, as always, the most salient issue and right now the ONLY salient issue for the mass public. Because of the stupidity of the American voter, they believe that the President is responsible for the economy's status. I don't care who you say really is, the public doesn't get it. They think the President is in charge and they vote along party-lines based on that. And that's why Obama will win. There is so much data on this that you can't deny it.

Plus, we can also go into momentum theory. Look at the fact that NORTH DAKOTA is now not a solid red state. This is going to be a landslide unless Osama bin Laden comes out within the next 72 hours with his head on a stick. It's all about bandwagonning and cascades. Forget about the Bradley Effect, the margin is entirely too large if it's really at 14.

Sigh, if only people listened to political scientists... Or if only I had wagered money on Intrade in February.

By the way, I LOVE that this election disproves the political-business cycle!

*For full disclosure, the economy and mood theories are the big ideas from one of my advisors, and I had to reread the book cited last night for my MA proposal draft. So this idea has been dominating my thinking for the past 24 hours. Hopefully I didn't fuck up Macropolitics too much in this cursory description of it.

More on Biden

You forgot the new revelations about botox that came out today.

I've also started to notice, at least on my end, that it's far more fun to talk about the VP selections. Is the same true for the Reps? The VPs are just better characters to analyze. Palin's just, well, Tina Fey really does put it best. And Biden asking the guy in the wheelchair to stand up just makes you want to say "Well shucks Joe, you're always gonna screw up something, arencha?" Unfortunately, we haven't been treated to as many gaffes from him as I'd like. Watching the two VP candidates I have come to understand the fascination some people have with NASCAR. I keep watching and hoping for the verbal equivalent of a car crash.

Then compare that dynamic to "my friends" McCain and the cool, calm and collected Obama. Where's the excitement with them? Unless McCain goes postal, which I do believe he is capable of (and then calling it a maverick move), the two Presidential nominess are just going to be wonky tomrrow night. B-O-R-I-N-G. It's like watching Roger Federer play damn near anyone at Wimbleon -- you pretty much already know what's going to happen, so why bother?

And that's why I drink to the debates. And may or may not have started channeling Dennis Miller, minus the conservatism.

As for that nickname, to give you an idea as to how old this Blogger account is, I was still on good terms with the person who gave me that nickname. I stopped using this account when I switched over to Wordpress a while back. I finally realized I still had that name up today and changed it. I'll tell you the story behind it later, but it involves my favorite AIM stalker.

A note on Senator Biden

I have extra-special permission to mock Joe Biden for several reasons:

• Amanda lives like 10 blocks from him and I've seen the outside (cue Matt Beato telling me he's been to his house... we know Beato, we know)
• I have actually been to all the places he claims to go to in Wilmington (except for Katie's on Union St. because, well, it's been closed for 20 years).
• As a balding man, I have no respect for anyone who goes Chia-Pet and gets the plugs (though if I had the money and could do it before I turned 30, I would probably consider it too). But for the time being, he is a disgrace to all current and future chrome domes.
• I've never tried to make a paraplegic stand up.

I guess Jenn (or should I say "Drill Bit"? What was up with that?) is covered on the last one too...

Rules for the Debating of the Debate

I do have to say, excepting that one time I got drunk at a semi-classy restaurant, I have not seen Dean Gene around campus. And my horrible, horrible building is near the law school.

My guidelines are as follows:

• I will be doing this Hunter S. Thompson style. See the last time I did a debate in this fashion to find out more. I will be consuming far more this time, however. Joe, I encourage you to do the same. Because I'm so patriotic, I'm opting for a California Cabernet, not the Australian Shiraz I have lying around.
  
• To shorten up the typing, McCain is now Mac, though Obama is Obama. Or maybe The Big O. Haven't decided yet.
  
• Palin I will refer to as "That nutjob who thinks dinosaurs and men walked the earth together."
• Biden, well, he's too boring to reference. Seriously, where has the gaffe machine gone?
  

For the Record...

For the record-

• I didn't fire Gene; he quit like a baby when I helped to force the hands of those who could fire him to "not renew his contract"
• I will refer to Barak (Insert Middle Name that I won't get accused of racism for saying) Obama as "Barry"
• This is awesome